I replied, that is the reason science reporting exciting is the great discoveries are so unpredictable.
But the interviewer pressed, but there must be some stories that the following I was on the verge of which were a breakthrough.I realized I had to come up with something, so I said: "the Gentherapie.Es is likely that next year appears gene therapy to work and medicine will be transformed."
Now, I'm waiting still for that to happen.And for whatever reason, I never heard of U.S. news again.
But I was right to say that progress are unpredictable? Yes and no, scientists say.
"I have learned over the years, the best for what are new and exciting Predictor ' that expect unexpected,'," said Dr. Joseph L. Goldstein, a Nobel Laureate, Professor and Chairman, Department of medical genetics at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center in Dallas is.
David Baltimore from Caltech, another Nobel Prize winner, said: "If you could predict, it would be a breakthrough."
But even if it is impossible to predict a certain important discovery, you can sometimes feel when a particular area of science, Dr. Richard says Klausner, a former head of the National Cancer Institute, now managing partner in the column group, venture capital firm."It will curve to Moore's law," he said referring to an observation holds in the computer science data processing speed increasing exponentially.
If this happens, Dr. Klausner said "barriers and unknown seem to fall" and it is pretty predictable are made even more exciting discoveries.
This happens now in stem cell research, he said, if also in the much-heralded sense of using discoveries are accelerating embryonic stem cells to diseases behandeln.Vielmehr is what one determines cell's fate - a brain cell it is going to be a heart cell, a liver cell?- and how to transform a type of cell to another.
The field came to life in 1998, when scientists found that could turn very versatile cells, stem cells in embryos into every cell in the body. As you were working on ways find direct these cells in different types of cells to turn suddenly, Dr. Klausner said "This whole field took a turn."
Discovered in 2007 two groups of scientists, you don't have to pick through to start stem cells from embryos. Instead could already developed cell as a skin cell, in a stem cell by adding four genes verwandeln.Dann other researchers have learned that you do not need to add to the gene - add instructions by gene instead.
At this time the idea was, take a cell as a skin cell, make it the way of its development repent and turn in a stem cell, then direct that stem cells into a different type of cell to develop as a nerve cell.
But it was really necessary that process backwards, then iterate through the forward development? scientists found with what Dr. sees Klausner, as a sign of the breathless pace of this field over the last two years you could do, what you call "Trans-differentiation."They are now cells such as nerve cells, and transform into other types of cells, muscle cells.
In theory it should of course possible sein.Alle cells in the body have the same genes - what distinguishes a nerve cell from a muscle cell is that some genes are expressed in a nerve cell to silence and others are placed in a muscle cell silenced.Only certain subsets of a cell genes are used.
But it's one thing to know in theory. It is to switch entirely different to one cell type into another.
But now, three groups of researchers have done.A group of nerves transformed connective tissue, a different heart turns muscle tissue and a third party enabled exocrine cells in the pancreas, the digestive enzymes in the very different endocrine cells in the pancreas secrete to make hormones such as insulin.The value of being able to a type of cell to transform Dr. Klausner said is that scientists have now "a completely new source" of cells that can convert.
"I find it so wild," said Dr. Klausner, "You go from no one able to do so to anyone able to do it."
So maybe the probability can be predicted by unpredictable discoveries as soon as a field really goes off.
But often the unpredictable is just that - unvorhersehbar.Das score a well-recognized problem when deciding what to fund research.
The national institutes of health, is charged for most research, evaluates proposals with committees, called study sections that get Resultate.Die highest scoring grants funded grant.
The difficulty, says Dr. Rudolph Leibel, head of the Division of molecular genetics and Co-Director of the Naomi Berrie Diabetes Center at Columbia University Medical Center, müssen.Wissenschaftler is the way that grants are written to the problem and describe it becoming experimental approach, give a relatively narrow view of what reaches and prediction will be success.
"To do something else the flattery - if you fail to do that in an application for financial assistance, the study sections - despite all will probably say, your goals are to diffuse," said Dr. Leibel.
The result, he said, is that scientists portfolio called it the "Kabuki-like presentation."But along, he adds, "the unspoken message is 'Boy, we hope we stumble upon something, is novel and unique.'"
Still recognize it's not easy to change things, Dr. Leibel.Die national institutes of health has some scholarships that are high-risk proposals to promote but most grants the traditional Art.Und Dr. Leibel said: "You can take to finance all crazy scheme and it and see if it works."
A result is made more and more private foundations, to the high-risk, high-reward research to unterstützen.Oft you are frustrated by the slow pace of progress in the understanding or treatment of a specific disease of stakeholders gegründet.Dr.Leibel's field is the Helmsley type 1 diabetes research consortium that tries to find a cure for diabetes type 1 and four institutions, including Dr. Leibel is led by four investigators.
"In Alzheimer's, it is of Alzheimer's cure Foundation.""Our mission and vision is that dramatically accelerate cure for Alzheimer's disease," writes the Group on its Web site.
Dr. Baltimore pointed out even if breakthroughs occur not always recognize you.
For example, he says micro-RNA - small molecules using to bring gene silencing - 1993 wurden.Aber discovered found in roundworms and recognize scientists to around 2000 have that you were a universal mechanism for gene control.
"" It is a breakthrough in retrospect,"said Dr. Baltimore.""Happens the whole Zeit.Sie not recognize this kind of thing something is how important until its generality is obviously."
Micro RNA explorers have now received your well-deserved recognition.
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